Strategist who made prediction on when Trump’s administration will ‘collapse’ makes new claim on his ‘big, beautiful bill’
Democratic strategist James Carville has predicted a major shift in the 2026 midterms following the passage of Trump’s controversial tax bill. The legislation, dubbed the “big, beautiful bill,” provides tax cuts for wealthy households while cutting Medicaid and food stamp funding.
Carville, who previously forecast the Trump administration’s collapse, now claims Democrats could gain 40 House seats. He argues the bill is deeply unpopular, with polls showing it 25-26 points underwater, and could trigger a “mass extinction event” for Republicans.
Critics, including Elon Musk, have slammed the bill as an “abomination,” warning it will balloon the national debt by $3.3 trillion. Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez say it will strip healthcare from 13.7 million Americans, branding it a “big, bad bill.”
Carville and fellow strategist Paul Begala believe the bill unites Democrats across ideologies. “We can run on this single issue all the way to 2026,” Carville said on CNN, predicting a landslide victory.
Begala added that Trump’s move alienates his own voters, particularly Medicaid recipients who supported him in past elections. “A stupid politician punishes his voters,” he remarked.
Current polls show Democrats leading Republicans by 2-3 points on the generic ballot. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries vowed to hold GOP lawmakers accountable for their votes.
The bill, signed on Independence Day, has become a focal point for Democratic campaigns. Carville insists the party only needs to highlight its consequences to secure a major midterm advantage.
