Newsom’s Polling Among Key Constituencies Lags Behind Vance: Report
Based on recent polling, California Governor Gavin Newsom is an early frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. A September survey shows him leading potential rivals with 21% support among registered Democrats.
However, national polls reveal significant vulnerabilities for Newsom. His net approval rating is negative, and he faces particular weakness with key voter groups essential for winning a general election.
His greatest challenge appears with non-college educated voters, who disapprove of him by a 21-point margin. This demographic has been a persistent concern for Democrats in critical swing states.
Swing voters also present a major hurdle, with Newsom trailing by 12 points. This is a critical weakness as a record 43% of Americans now identify as independents.
The governor also struggles with men, including college-educated men who narrowly supported Kamala Harris in 2024. Furthermore, he has slight disapproval among high-propensity voters who consistently turn out for elections.
Newsom faces skepticism from some Black voters, particularly those who regularly attend religious services. This could pose a challenge in early primary states like South Carolina.
While leading the primary field, Newsom’s polling deficits suggest a difficult national campaign. Analysts indicate that a potential matchup against Republican Vice President JD Vance would hinge on these key constituencies. A recent controversial social media post from his team has also drawn criticism and scrutiny.
